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The Indus Waters Treaty in Jeopardy
deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, India has taken a drastic step by suspending a key water-sharing agreement with Pakistan—the 1960 **Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)**. This treaty, which survived two wars between the nuclear-armed neighbors, has long been hailed as a rare example of transboundary water cooperation.
India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism—a claim Islamabad vehemently denies. In retaliation, Pakistan has warned that any attempt to block water flows would be considered **"an act of war."**
### **What Does the Treaty Say?**
The IWT divides the Indus River system between the two countries:
- **India** controls the three **eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej)**.
- **Pakistan** receives **80% of the water** from the three **western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab)**, crucial for its agriculture and hydropower.
Disputes have arisen before, with Pakistan opposing some Indian dam projects, fearing reduced water flows. But this is the first time either country has **suspended the treaty entirely**—and India, being upstream, holds a geographical advantage.
### **Can India Actually Stop the Water?**
Experts say **it’s not that simple**.
1. **Massive Storage Needed** – India lacks the infrastructure to hold back billions of cubic meters of water during high-flow seasons. Most of its hydropower projects are **"run-of-the-river"**, meaning they don’t store large volumes.
2. **Terrain and Protests** – Building dams in the Indus basin is challenging due to difficult geography and domestic opposition. Despite plans to accelerate projects after past attacks, progress has been slow.
However, **without treaty constraints**, India could now:
- **Modify existing dams** to retain more water.
- **Stop sharing hydrological data** with Pakistan, crucial for flood forecasting and irrigation planning.
### **The Dry Season Threat**
While India may struggle to block water entirely, **Pakistan could feel the pinch during dry months**. Reduced flows could hit agriculture and hydropower when water is already scarce.
### **Could India "Weaponize" Water?**
The idea of a **"water bomb"**—where India releases stored water suddenly to cause floods—is often discussed. But experts say:
- India’s dams are **far from the Pakistan border**, meaning it would risk flooding its own areas first.
- However, **flushing silt** from reservoirs without warning could damage downstream regions in Pakistan.
### **The Bigger Geopolitical Picture**
India itself is **downstream of China** in the Brahmaputra basin. In 2016, after tensions with Pakistan, China blocked a tributary of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), raising concerns about **Beijing’s control over transboundary rivers**.
With China planning the **world’s largest dam** on the Brahmaputra, India fears similar water leverage.
### **What’s Next?**
The suspension of the IWT marks a dangerous escalation. While India may not completely cut off Pakistan’s water, it could **manipulate flows in ways that hurt Pakistan’s economy**. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s warning of war shows how high the stakes are.
As climate change and geopolitical tensions rise, the future of water-sharing in South Asia hangs in the balance.
India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty after Kashmir attack.
Experts say completely stopping water flow is unlikely, but dry-season shortages could hurt Pakistan.
India could now modify dams and stop sharing flood data. China’s dam-building adds another layer of tension in the region.
Escalation risks turning water into a geopolitical weapon.
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